You Know the Culprit

Mallory, my wife, signed me and Amelia up for a father daughter date night at our local Chick-fil-a. Amelia loved it and she enjoyed the brownie bar the most!

Last year we went to a baseball game and the mascot was walking around greeting people. Amelia was terrified of the mascot and she randomly brought up how she did not like mascots a few weeks ago. We couldn’t believe she still remembered. Amelia is pictured at the baseball game last year hiding after spotting the mascot.

When I saw that Chick-fil-a had their giant cow mascot greeting people I knew it was going to be iffy. She had a lot of questions about the big cow, but I could not convince her to get a picture with the cow. Maybe next year…

Did you ever read Sherlock Holmes? In the 1894 story entitled The Adventure of Silver Blaze Holmes noticed something odd when he was attempting to solve the mystery. Holmes is pictured below from Wikipedia.

Holmes said, “the curious incident of the dog in the night-time” and the detail that the dog did not bark or make a commotion during the commission of the crime.

Holmes concluded that the suspect must be someone the dog knew because the dog didn’t stir. If someone is breaking into a house and a dog resides there, you’d expect the dog to bark and growl. But nobody heard the dog making noise the night of the mystery.

The decline in the market this year is similar. Often, when the market experiences a downturn, there is a lot of sudden uproar about the hit people are feeling. Just think back to the year 2020 when the pandemic started in the spring. On several trading days the market triggers paused trading because the market was selling off so quickly. We’re pictured below before our date night.

This year is different in the sense that we are familiar with who’s causing the market decline. The government is leading us into a recession, but we’re not seeing the usual uproar that often coincides with market downturns. And I think it may be because we’re familiar with the culprit.

July saw the market level out some and folks are hoping the worst is behind us. Don’t hold your breath. Interest rates are set to increase in September again which tends to cause volatility.

Plus, the “jobs added” to the economy report came out last week and there were more jobs added to the economy than the government anticipated. Which means that the government increasing interest rates has not had enough of the effect the government was hoping to have.

While the economy has slowed as evidenced by us technically being in a recession, it has not slowed enough to cool inflation. This means the pressure is on the Federal Reserve to do more, but they are limited in their ability to have an impact. Amelia below at Chick-fil-a.

What this means for people in the market

First, we should not have money in the market we will need in the next ten years. However, we need our money productively allocated to maintain our lifestyle in retirement. You have options for your income money in retirement. Do you know what they are?

Second, if our market volatility is causing you turmoil consider using a hedge called a buffered ETF. This has resonated with some of our clients this year. You can be buffered against the first 15% of losses in the S&P 500. In exchange for the buffer, we are capped at earning around 15% of what the S&P 500 produces over the next twelve months.

This allows you to not have to attempt to time the market (nobody can), but allows some peace of mind that if the market drops further, you have a buffer in place. If you’d like to learn more about this strategy or others we use please call our office at 864.641.7955.

Until next week,

David C. Treece,

Financial Advisor