Have you ever tried to put a ten up in the dark? Show 42


Hello,
Mallory and I took a trip out to Colorado several years ago for a friend’s wedding. I lived in Colorado for three years in my twenties, and I love going out west! When you travel so far it makes sense to make a vacation out of it and see as much as possible.
If you’ve spent much time out west, you may realize that you could spend a lifetime living in one of the western states and still never see it all. Colorado, geographically, is an expansive state.
Here’s a travel tip: The southwest corner of Colorado is commonly referred to as the “four corners” area. Nestled between huge mountains is a tiny town called Telluride near the four corners. It’s a breathtaking place.
When standing on the main drag of the town, you feel like you’re part of a postcard scene. I could sit for hours looking at the mountains. Everyone should see Telluride. There’s a small airport there, but most people fly into bigger airports and make the long drive to the town.
We didn’t make it to Telluride on this trip, but we decided to borrow a friend’s car in Denver and drive to Glenwood Springs on the western slope. There was a natural hot springs there that we’d never seen. We’re pictured below after the hot outdoor wedding.
David and Mallory at the wedding
Our plans were loose at best, and we planned to take the adventure as it came. Our only plan was our destination. We arrived in Glenwood Springs in the early afternoon and found the hot springs.
We meandered there for a while until we got hungry. As we were enjoying our burritos, we noticed it was beginning to look like night was near. Our friends let us borrow a tent to use for the night, but we didn’t plan for where we’d camp.
After our burritos, we drove around the little town, and finally started ascending a curvy mountain road. We figured we could find somewhere to park and camp. It was dusk at this point. Mallory was probably becoming more worried than she let on, but she was being a good sport.
By the time we found what we thought was a suitable place to camp, it was dark. We fumbled around the trunk of the car looking for the tent. We had found a place to pitch our tent that overlooked Glenwood Springs. It was an amazing view of the town, but not having the benefit of light made it difficult to find a suitable place to set the tent up. After all, we were on the side of a mountain.
After sitting there and taking in the view for a while, fatigue set in. We were ready to be asleep, but our tent was still folded up. We got our headlamps out and started trying to figure out how to erect the tent. Once we got it together, we discovered we had put it together wrong. There was a big gap at the bottom that wasn’t supposed to be there. So, we took it down and started over.
It became a stressful situation after about a half hour of fooling around with it in the dark, but somehow we finally figured it out. I made Mallory promise she’d never tell anyone how much I struggled with what should have been a simple task.
When we start our working career, it’s like setting out from Denver in your car with the destination of retirement on the horizon. If we would have had a flat tire right outside of Denver, we could have changed it and been fine.
If you have a small catastrophe in your 30s, you may have time to recover. If your 401k experiences a couple down years when you’re in your 40s, it’s probably not too big of a deal. You have the benefit of time on your side.
Along the way you may throw an IRA in your retirement portfolio or the trunk of your retirement portfolio so to speak. Then you may stop working for a while to help a sick spouse or parent, then start another job. All the while you leave accounts here and there.
Then you get to retirement and you may start trying to create your retirement tent, but you have no directions or no plan in place to dictate the best way to pitch your tent. So, you do the best you can do. You remember a broker sold you a fancy product and you hope it works out.
But what you realize later down the road is your tent has some holes. With the holes you get wet when it rains and your accounts don’t work like you had hoped they would. Or worse, you run out of money before you thought you would.
The last thing most people want is to get into retirement and to hit snags. That’s a likely event if you don’t have directions for how your money is working. Having a written retirement plan is essential to mitigate against many avoidable dangers in retirement.
Geremy van Arkel, he’s a Chartered Financial Analyst with Frontier Asset Management
One the asset managers we use recently released his market commentary. His name is Geremy van Arkel, and he’s a Chartered Financial Analyst with Frontier Asset Management. He states in his writing, “There are so many similarities between what is happening now and what took place in 1999 that is uncanny.”
Geremy continued, “First off, 1999 occurred following a long and extended bull market. Ten years into that bull market, the obvious leaders of the day were known, and investors couldn’t get enough of them. This created a very narrow investment market environment – much like that of today with FAANGM (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google, and Microsoft).”
He goes on to explain that those six stocks comprise an overweighting in the NASDAQ and S&P. He states, in theory, one would only need to invest in those six stocks to continue making a return, but that’s not rational or prudent. He analogizes that the same thing was happening in 1999 with technology stocks.
Later in Geremy’s commentary he gives 10 reasons why today’s current stock market is eerily similar to 1999. If you’d like to read his commentary reply to this email, and we’ll forward it to you.
He concludes by staying, “How does this all end, and what, if anything, should we do about it? Are these the signs of a stable and efficient market environment? I will let you decide. What I personally learned in 1999 is that there is no way to win in a bubble. I find it best to simply not participate. That way, I can sit back, watch, and just enjoy the show. The second thing that I learned is that there is a difference between an investment and a speculation. Here is the rule to live by, so ears up. An investment is an asset that you can hold forever. If investors only chose investments in light of the idea that they could never sell them, they would make much better decisions. A speculation, on the other hand, is when investments are chosen with the idea and intent that they will be sold at a higher price.”
We use asset managers whose philosophy resonates with ours. At Geremy’s firm they are forward looking. Many people will talk about past performance in relation to the market, but what that fails to communicate is that the future will be vastly different than the past.
It’s important when positioning your portfolio to have someone who’s anticipating the future. Change happens fast. Is your portfolio geared for rapid changes?
Until next week,
David C. Treece,
Financial Advisor
Investment advisory services offered only by duly registered individuals through AE Wealth Management, LLC (AEWM). AEWM and Clients Excel, LLC are not affiliated companies. Investing involves risk, including potential loss of principal. Any references to protection, safety, or lifetime income, generally refer to fixed insurance products, never securities or investments. Insurance guarantees are backed by the financial strength and claims paying abilities of the insuring carrier. This podcast is intended for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be used as the sole basis for financial decisions, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet particular needs of an individual’s situation. Clients Excel is not permitted to offer and no statement made during this show shall constitute tax or legal advice. Our firm is not affiliated with or endorsed by the U.S. Government or any governmental agency. The information and opinions contained herein provided by third parties have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed by Clients Excel. The use of logos and/or trademarks of podcast hosting sites are the property of their respective owners and are not an endorsement by those owners of our firm or our program.

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